Poaceae pollen in the air depending on the thermal conditions

The relationship between the meteorological elements, especially the thermal conditions and the Poaceae pollen appearance in the air, were analysed as a basis to construct a useful model predicting the grass season start. Poaceae pollen concentrations were monitored in 1991- 2012 in Kraków using the volumetric method. Cumulative temperature and effective cumulative temperature significantly influenced the season start in this period. The strongest correlation was seen as the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1 to April 14, with mean daily temperature > $15 ^{\circ}C$ and effective cumulative temperature >$3 ^{\circ}C$ during that period. The proposed model, based on multiple regression, explained 57 % of variation of the Poaceae season starts in 1991-2010. When cumulative mean daily temperature increased by $10 ^{\circ}C$, the season start was accelerated by 1 day. The input of the interaction between these two independent variables into the factor regression model caused the increase in goodness of model fitting. In 2011 the season started 5 days earlier in comparison with the predicted value, while in 2012 the season start was observed 2 days later compared to the predicted day. Depending on the value of mean daily temperature from March 18th to the 31st and the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1st to the 14th, the grass pollen seasons were divided into five groups referring to the time of season start occurrence, whereby the early and moderate season starts were the most frequent in the studied period and they were especially related to mean daily temperature in the second half of March

Predicting tree pollen season start dates using thermal conditions

Thermal conditions at the beginning of the year determine the timing of pollen seasons of early flowering trees. The aims of this study were to quantify the relationship between the tree pollen season start dates and the thermal conditions just before the beginning of the season and to construct models predicting the start of the pollen season in a given year. The study was performed in Krakow (Southern Poland); the pollen data of Alnus, Corylus and Betula were obtained in 1991–2012 using a volumetric method. The relationship between the tree pollen season start, calculated by the cumulated pollen grain sum method, and a 5-day running means of maximum (for Alnus and Corylus) and mean (for Betula) daily temperature was found and used in the logistic regression models. The estimation of model parameters indicated their statistically significance for all studied taxa; the odds ratio was higher in models for Betula, comparing to Alnus and Corylus. The proposed model makes the accuracy of prediction in 83.58 % of cases for Alnus, in 84.29 % of cases for Corylus and in 90.41 % of cases for Betula. In years of model verification (2011 and 2012), the season start of Alnus and Corylus was predicted more precisely in 2011, while in case of Betula, the model predictions achieved 100 % of accuracy in both years. The correctness of prediction indicated that the data used for the model arrangement fitted the models well and stressed the high efficacy of model prediction estimated using the pollen data in 1991–2010

Prediction of the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow, Poland using an 18-year data series

The aim of the study was to construct the model forecasting the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow on the basis of an 18-year data series. The study was performed using the volumetric method (Lanzoni/Burkard trap). The 98/95 % method was used to calculate the pollen season. The Spearman’s correlation test was applied to find the relationship between the meteorological parameters and pollen season characteristics. To construct the predictive model, the backward stepwise multiple regression analysis was used including the multi-collinearity of variables. The predictive models best fitted the pollen season start and end, especially models containing two independent variables. The peak concentration value was predicted with the higher prediction error. Also the accuracy of the models predicting the pollen season characteristics in 2009 was higher in comparison with 2010. Both, the multi-variable model and one-variable model for the beginning of the pollen season included air temperature during the last 10 days of February, while the multi-variable model also included humidity at the beginning of April. The models forecasting the end of the pollen season were based on temperature in March–April, while the peak day was predicted using the temperature during the last 10 days of March

Pollen grains as allergenic environmental factors : new approach to the forecasting of the pollen concentration during the season

Introduction and objectives. It is important to monitor the threat of allergenic pollen during the whole season, because of practical application in allergic rhinitis treatment, especially in the specific allergen immunotherapy. The aim of the study was to propose the forecast models predicting the pollen occurrence in the defined pollen concentration categories related to the patient exposure and symptom intensity. Material and methods. The study was performed in Cracow (southern Poland), pollen data were collected using the volumetric method in 1991–2012. For all independent variables (meteorological elements) and the daily pollen concentrations the running mean for periods: 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6- and 7 days before the predicted day were calculated. The multinomial logistic regression was used to find the relation between the probability of the pollen concentration occurrence in the selected categories and meteorological elements and pollen concentration in days preceding the predicted daily concentration. The models were constructed for each taxon using data in 1991–2011 (without 1992 and 1996 due to missing data in these years) and 1998–2011 pollen seasons. Results. The days classified among the lowest category (0–10 PG/m3 ) (pollen grains/m3 of air) dominated for all the studied taxa. The percentage of the obtained predictions of the pollen occurrence fluctuated between 35–78% which is a sufficient value of model predictions. Considering the studied taxon, the best model accuracy was obtained for models forecasting Betula pollen concentration (both data series), and Poaceae (both data series). Conclusions. The application of the recommended threshold values during the predictive models construction seems to be really useful to estimate the real threat of allergen exposure. It was indicated that the polynomial logistic regression models could be a practical tool for effective forecasting in biological monitoring of pollen exposure

Charakterystyka badań aeromykologicznych i wstępny opis badań prowadzonych w Worcester w Wielkiej Brytanii w ramach współpracy wieloośrodkowej

The aim of this article is to inform about aerobiological research which has been commenced in cooperation between the University of Worcester, Jagiellonian University, Adam Mickiewicz University and the University of Szczecin. Occurrence of four allergenic fungal spores in the air will be studied, i.e. Alternaria spp., Cladosporium spp., Ganoderma spp. and Didymella spp. in relation to meteorological factors. Diurnal, daily and spatial variations of the fungal spore concentration will be compared between spore monitoring sites to produce forecast models for selected fungi. Forecasts play an important role in the timing of prophylactic medication and in maintaining compliance in treatments. They also help allergic people to plan their activities in order to avoid exposure to high atmospheric concentrations of fungal spores

Climate changes and their impact on pollen seasons of selected allergenic plants in Poland

W Polsce notuje się wzrost zachorowalności na alergię pyłkową. Główną przyczyną objawów u osób uczulonych są występujące w powietrzu alergeny pyłku roślin wiatropylnych, głównie: olszy, leszczyny, brzozy, traw i ambrozji. Na sezonowe i dobowe stężenia ziaren pyłku duży wpływ mają warunki pogodowe oraz obserwowane współcześnie zmiany klimatu. W pracy przedstawiono prawidłowości w przebiegu wybranych sezonów pyłkowych w Polsce na tle zmienności klimatu. Stwierdzono, że w związku z nietypowymi, najczęściej łagodnymi zimami, zróżnicowanie dat początku sezonu pyłkowego olszy i leszczyny wynosi nawet dwa miesiące (styczeń–marzec). Intensywna cyrkulacja południkowa w kwietniu i maju doprowadza do wydłużenia sezonu pyłkowego brzozy i dodatkowego wzrostu dobowych wartości stężenia pyłku. Ponadto ziarna pyłku tego taksonu mogą pochodzić z tzw. dalekiego transportu, czyli z obszarów, gdzie kwitnienie brzóz występuje wcześniej (południe Europy) lub później (północno-wschodnia Europa) niż w Polsce. Wyższa suma opadów w kwietniu lub maju oraz wysokie wartości temperatury w czerwcu i lipcu, przy opadach w tych miesiącach w granicach normy, przyczyniają się do występowania wysokich stężeń ziaren pyłku traw. Natomiast z końcem sierpnia i na początku września adwekcja mas powietrza z południa lub wschodu i towarzysząca im słoneczna, sucha pogoda sprzyja wysokim stężeniom pyłku ambrozji.Poland, an increase in the incidence of pollen allergy has been noted from the last decade. The main cause of allergic symptoms in patients are the airborne pollen allergens, to which the patients are sensitive, mainly: alder, hazel, birch, grass and ragweed pollen. Seasonal and daily concentrations of pollen grains are strongly influenced by weather conditions and currently observed climate changes. The paper presents regularities in selected pollen seasons in Poland against the background of climate variability. It was found that due to atypical, usually mild winters, the diversity of dates of the beginning of the pollen season for alder and hazel is even two months (January–March). Intensive meridian circulation in April and May leads to an extension of the birch pollen season and an additional increase in daily pollen concentration. In addition, pollen grains of this taxon may originate from the long-range transport, i.e. from regions where birch blooming occurs earlier (south of Europe) or later (north-east Europe) than in Poland. Higher rainfall in April or May and high temperatures in June and July with precipitation in these months within normal limits contribute to the occurrence of high concentrations of grass pollen grains. However, at the end of August and beginning of September, advection of air masses from the south or east and the accompanying sunny, dry weather promotes high concentrations of ragweed pollen

A 10-year study of Alternaria and Cladosporium in two Polish cities (Szczecin and Cracow) and relationship with the meteorological parameters

Alternaria and Cladosporium spores belong to the most frequent and allergenic particles in bioaerosol in the temperate climate. The investigation of Alternaria and Cladosporium spore concentrations was performed in two cities in Poland, Szczecin and Cracow, in 2004–2013. The meteorological parameters taken to assess their impact on fungal spores were average, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and average wind velocity. In order to reveal whether changes in dynamics of spore seasons are driven by meteorological conditions, ordination methods were applied. Canonical correspondence analysis was used to explore redundancy among the predictors (meteorological parameters). Prior to ordination analyses, the data were log(x)-transformed. Concentrations of Alternaria and Cladosporium spores were significantly higher in Szczecin comparing to Cracow, but it was also observed the decreasing trend in the spore concentrations in Szczecin. As regards temperature, it was higher in Cracow and was still increasing in the studied years. Relative humidity and wind velocity were significantly lower in Cracow. In Szczecin meteorological conditions did not explain changes in spore season characteristics (insignificant redundancy analysis models), while in Cracow’s redundancy analysis models indicated that spore season parameters were in over 40 % determined by meteorological conditions, mainly air temperature and wind velocity. If they increase, the peak value, total number of spores and their average concentrations in a season will also increase

Influence of environment exposures on the frequency of contact allergies in children and adolescents

Contact allergy is detected in every second child with the symptoms of chronic or recurrent eczema, and in every third child the final diagnosis is allergic contact dermatitis. Haptens responsible for the majority of contact sensitizations in children are substances ubiquitous in our environment, e.g. metals, preservatives, fragrances, propolis, and balsam of Peru. Much concern is provoked by the higher rates of sensitization to fragrances in younger children, compared to adolescents, which may be attributed to the higher exposure nowadays of infants and children to fragrant products. On the other hand, a limitation of exposure to the preservatives thimerosal and Kathon CG has resulted in decreased rates of sensitization to these haptens. Altogether, these observations demonstrate that the rates of contact sensitizations in children reflect changes in their environment, and limitations imposed on the use of haptens with strong sensitizing properties, may be an effective tool in the prevention of contact allergy